Global Commodities: Metals headed for even greater heights
At a Glance
The desk maintains a bullish outlook on both gold and copper, anticipating significant price increases by 2026. Per the full note from J.P. Morgan, gold is projected to reach $5,000/oz by 4Q26, driven by ongoing diversification into gold by both official reserves and investors. Additionally, copper is expected to surge to $12,500/mt in 1H26, fueled by acute supply disruptions and tightening inventories. This perspective aligns with our broader bullish sentiment on commodities, particularly in light of the current macroeconomic environment.
Key Takeaways
- 01Gold price target of $5,000/oz by 4Q26, driven by reserve and investor demand.
- 02Copper price target of $12,500/mt by 1H26, supported by supply disruptions.
- 03Bullish stance aligns with structural diversification and tight commodity markets.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
J.P. Morgan retains a structural multi-year bullish outlook for gold, targeting $5,000/oz by 4Q26, citing ongoing official reserve and investor diversification. For base metals, the bank is most convicted on copper, forecasting prices to rise to $12,500/mt over 1H26 as acute supply disruptions tighten the refined market and stress ex-US inventory cover.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our internal consensus for gold stands at $4,500/oz for 4Q26, with a firm spread of $3,500-$5,200. For copper, our consensus is $11,000/mt for 1H26, with a spread of $9,500-$12,500. J.P. Morgan's gold target is above consensus but within range; copper target is at the top of the range.
Market Implications
Expect continued strength in gold and copper, potentially boosting related currencies (AUD, CAD) and commodity equities.
From the original
Greg Shearer shares J.P. Morgan’s outlook for base and precious metals in 2026. We retain our structural, multi-year bullish outlook for gold, seeing prices heading to $5,000/oz by 4Q26 as the long-term trend of official reserve and investor diversification into gold has further
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