Gold Price Forecast: UBS Sees $5,000 Holding Into 2026 On Strong Demand - Exchange Rates Org UK

What the desk is arguing

UBS’s forecast posits that gold will significantly appreciate, driven largely by sustained demand in the face of potential economic uncertainties and inflationary pressures. The firm emphasizes that the dynamics of supply and demand will be pivotal in achieving this ambitious price target.

The supporting evidence highlights strong purchasing activity and capital flows into gold, indicating that investors are increasingly viewing the asset as a safe haven. This trend is contrasted with potential scenarios where a rise in interest rates could dampen gold demand, yet UBS appears confident in the resilience of the market's fundamentals.

Where it sits in our coverage

Our current consensus target for gold stands at $1,075, with a trading range observed between $1,040 and $1,120. UBS's forecast is markedly more optimistic than our expectations, reflecting a divergence in outlooks, particularly around the demand drivers.

Specific firms in our coverage include: - Barclays: Dec-26 target at $1,200. - JPMorgan: Holding a target of $1,050. - Goldman Sachs: Projecting a target of $1,300.

How other firms see it

Several firms are taking a more cautious stance compared to UBS. While UBS's outlook is characterized by strong demand predictions, other analysts exhibit skepticism about the persistence of such demand amid tightening monetary policies.

• Barclays: Aligned with a moderately bullish view but significantly lower projections.
• Goldman Sachs: Considering headwinds from higher interest rates, which could hinder gold's performance.
• BofA: Contrarily, foresees more bearish trends, positioning itself well below UBS's target.