UBS Gold Price Forecast 2025-2026: Gold Holds Above $4,000, Further Gains Expected - Exchange Rates Org UK

What the desk is arguing

UBS’s forecast anticipates a steady surge in gold prices, positioning the metal well above the $4,000 mark through 2025-2026. This outlook reflects a broader trend where ongoing inflationary concerns and geopolitical tensions continue to fuel demand for gold as a secure investment alternative.

The evidence supporting UBS’s view includes historical patterns where gold tends to appreciate during periods of economic instability or high inflation. With central banks maintaining accommodative policies despite rising interest rates, the attractiveness of gold as a store of value is expected to increase further, paving the way for continued price elevation.

Where it sits in our coverage

Our current consensus target for gold reflects a cautious approach at $1,075, significantly lower than UBS's projection. This divergence signals a contrast between our outlook and UBS’s more aggressive bullish sentiment, suggesting a need for reassessment if macroeconomic conditions evolve in favor of commodity strengths.

• Barclays has projected a target of $1,100 by Dec-26.
• JPMorgan anticipates a price of $1,150 within the same timeframe.
• Goldman Sachs stated a target of $1,200, indicating a belief in short-term pullbacks rather than a sustained rally.

How other firms see it

There is a mix of sentiment among other analysts in the market. Some firms, like JPMorgan, echo alignment with variables that suggest potential upside for gold, albeit at more conservative estimates.

• Barclays: aligned, suggesting cautious optimism in gold.
• Goldman Sachs: contrary, projecting lower future valuations due to expected rate hikes.
• BofA: contrary, with a bearish stance on commodity prices as a whole, targeting even lower than current prices.