ING Monthly: The world economy at half-time
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4 itemsING Monthly: The world economy at half-time
The desk is positioning for a mildly bullish outlook on the EUR/USD pair, drawn from the recent ING Monthly report's insights on macroeconomic trends and central bank stances. Per the full note, lower oil prices are expected to ease inflationary pressures in the U.S. and Europe, contributing to a steadier economic environment that could support the euro against the dollar. The Federal Reserve's projected hold on rates until mid-2027 contrasts with the potential for the ECB to pursue one more hike if inflation risks linger, suggesting a divergence in monetary policy. Amid these dynamics, the EUR/USD's current spot at 1.1434 reflects a cautious consensus toward the end of the year, with targets ranging from 1.1200 to 1.2000 across major banks.
Global 2023 Outlook Podcast – A year of two halves
The desk anticipates a bifurcated economic landscape in 2023, with a slowdown in the first half followed by a potential recovery in the latter half. This aligns with Standard Chartered's view that emerging markets may be on the cusp of a rebound, prompting investors to reassess their strategies. The desk highlights that the global economic growth rate is expected to decelerate, with projections indicating a GDP growth of around 2.5% in H1 before rebounding to approximately 3.5% in H2. This transition presents both opportunities and challenges for traders navigating emerging market currencies.