ING Monthly: The world economy at half-time
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4 itemsING Monthly: The world economy at half-time
The desk is positioning for a mildly bullish outlook on the EUR/USD pair, drawn from the recent ING Monthly report's insights on macroeconomic trends and central bank stances. Per the full note, lower oil prices are expected to ease inflationary pressures in the U.S. and Europe, contributing to a steadier economic environment that could support the euro against the dollar. The Federal Reserve's projected hold on rates until mid-2027 contrasts with the potential for the ECB to pursue one more hike if inflation risks linger, suggesting a divergence in monetary policy. Amid these dynamics, the EUR/USD's current spot at 1.1434 reflects a cautious consensus toward the end of the year, with targets ranging from 1.1200 to 1.2000 across major banks.
ING Monthly: Weathering the shocks
Lead — The desk views the recent adjustments made by ING as indicative of a stronger dollar outlook, extending the bullish sentiment for USD/JPY and a shift in EUR/USD forecasts. Per the full note from ING, revisions include a hawkish Fed outlook driving an increase in year-end USD/JPY targets to 160 from 158, while EUR/USD targets have been reduced to 1.16 from 1.18. This recalibration reflects the Fed's probable rotation towards a more aggressive monetary stance despite slower job creation and inflation dynamics. With the current spot at 1.1446 for EUR/USD and 161.2860 for USD/JPY, traders should remain alert to market response as these forecasts diverge from general market sentiment.