Intervention risks weigh on momentum as USD/JPY approaches the highest level since 1986
USD/JPY — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
UOB | — | 160.75 |
Citi | — | 155.00 |
UBS | — | 150.00 |
All 22 desk targets for USD/JPY
From the original
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar continues to be supported following the hawkish Fed dot plot last week as the central bank’s tightening bias led to a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations. As a reminder, the Fed delivered a hawkish surprise by projecting a rate
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4 itemsRisk of dovish BoJ hike and hawkish Fed keeps USD/JPY skewed to the upside
USD/JPY is near the highest level since 1986 as divergence with the Fed intensifies
USD/JPY keeps erasing intervention losses as macro backdrop remains skewed to the upside
USD/JPY flirts with a key upside breakout as yen's intervention-led gains continue to fade
The desk sees the USD/JPY poised for a potential upside breakout as the yen's recent gains, driven by intervention, appear to be waning. Per the full note [source], the US dollar has regained traction amid higher-than-expected inflation data and geopolitical tensions, while the Bank of Japan's dovish stance continues to weigh on the yen. With the USD/JPY testing the critical 158.00 resistance level, a breakout could signal a move towards 162.00, contingent on the Fed's evolving policy stance and upcoming economic data. The market remains cautious, awaiting the US Retail Sales report and Jobless Claims figures, which could provide further direction.
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USD/JPY makes a quick move lower. Eyes on intervention.