Macro Freestyle – Risks to market resilience
At a Glance
The desk highlights increasing risks to financial-market resilience, driven by geopolitical tensions and fiscal uncertainties, as articulated by Standard Chartered's recent commentary. Per the full note, the recent IEEPA tariff ruling could exacerbate market volatility, particularly in commodities and JGBs, while concerns about AI-driven market optimism may lead to a recalibration of investor sentiment. With a consensus target of 1.075 for USD/JPY, traders should remain vigilant as these factors unfold, especially with potential implications for central bank policies.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
The desk argues that recent geopolitical developments and fiscal outlooks present significant risks to market stability. Per the full note, the IEEPA tariff ruling and escalating tensions in the Middle East could lead to heightened volatility across various asset classes, including currencies and commodities.
Standard Chartered's analysis suggests that investors should be particularly wary of potential shifts in market sentiment, especially as optimism surrounding AI technologies may be moderating. This could impact trading strategies and positioning in the FX markets, particularly for pairs like USD/JPY and EUR/USD.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for USD/JPY is 1.075, with a range between 1.04 and 1.12. Notable firm targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26) - citi: 1.12 (Mar26)
This view aligns with jpmorgan's target, which sits at the higher end of the consensus range, suggesting a bullish outlook amid the discussed risks. The desk's assessment highlights the potential for upward pressure on USD/JPY if geopolitical tensions escalate further.
How other firms see it
Several firms, including jpmorgan and citi, share a similar bullish outlook on USD/JPY, reflecting a consensus on the potential for upward movement in the pair. Conversely, bofa presents a more cautious stance, advocating for a lower target amid the prevailing uncertainties.
Traders should monitor the USD/JPY trajectory closely, particularly in relation to the Bank of Japan's policy decisions and broader market sentiment, as these factors will significantly influence currency movements.
What the calendar says
...
USD/JPY — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2027 |
|---|---|---|
Goldman Sachs | Bearish | 165.00 |
UOB | Bearish | 163.00 |
Citi | Bearish | 163.00 |
From the original
Standard Chartered’s Eric Robertsen, Global Head of Research and Chief Strategist, and Madhur Jha, Head of Thematic Research, examine risks to financial-market resilience from the recent IEEPA tariff ruling and a possible escalation of Middle East tensions. They also discuss whet
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