Morgan Stanley Euro To Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD At 1.25 By June 2026 - Exchange Rates Org UK

What the desk is arguing

The desk agrees with Morgan Stanley's outlook, highlighting that the current spot at 1.1500 is considerably below their forecast of 1.25 by June 2026. This suggests room for upward movement if underlying economic factors, such as interest rate adjustments and growth differentials, align favorably for the Eurozone.

Moreover, our internal consensus of 1.2200 by December 2026 supports this trajectory, indicating alignment with the bullish outlook emerging from several firms. The counterfactual scenario would imply a stagnation or decline of the euro, which feels less likely given the growing optimism in Eurozone economics.

Where it sits in our coverage

Our current consensus target for EUR/USD is 1.2200 for December 2026, with other firm targets showing a spread among major banks. For example, firms such as Goldman and Deutsche Bank have forecasted targets of 1.2500 and 1.2500, respectively, for the same time frame, reflecting a strong consensus for euro strength.

• Goldman: Dec26 1.2500
• Deutsche Bank: Dec26 1.2500
• MUFG: Dec26 1.2400

This compares well against Morgan Stanley's revised target of 1.1600 by December 2026, which appears to be an outlier in our aggregation. Overall, the existing forecast landscape offers considerable optimism tied to the euro's performance.