Bank Research Platform

XAU---

WTI---

FX OFFLINE

LIVE

21:11ZUS Rates - Cash continues to roll in 17:20ZThe costs—and the economic prize—of the West Coast Oil Pipeline 17:14ZGlobal Commodities: A sense of déjà vu 16:38ZGlobal FX: Keep calm and carry on 15:08ZPolicy Shifts and Market Risks: Japan, Inflation, and the Fed 13:47ZAssessing rate hike pressures for Japan and South Korea 13:23ZEasing aluminium supply risk prompts lower forecasts 10:23ZConsumer Checkpoint: Consumers hit the back of the net 10:12ZTHINK Ahead: How our 2026 predictions have aged 09:31ZItalian industrial production posts a small contraction in May 21:11ZUS Rates - Cash continues to roll in 17:20ZThe costs—and the economic prize—of the West Coast Oil Pipeline 17:14ZGlobal Commodities: A sense of déjà vu 16:38ZGlobal FX: Keep calm and carry on 15:08ZPolicy Shifts and Market Risks: Japan, Inflation, and the Fed 13:47ZAssessing rate hike pressures for Japan and South Korea 13:23ZEasing aluminium supply risk prompts lower forecasts 10:23ZConsumer Checkpoint: Consumers hit the back of the net 10:12ZTHINK Ahead: How our 2026 predictions have aged 09:31ZItalian industrial production posts a small contraction in May

FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE

Institutional FX coverage in your inbox

Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 30 institutional desks. No promotion.

Morgan Stanley forecasts EUR/USD to reach 1.23 by spring before falling - Investing.com UK | FX Bank Forecast

28 investment banks see EUR/USD at 1.1736 by Dec 2026

View the live EUR/USD forecast

GOOGLE NEWS · EUR/USDg10 fx

Morgan Stanley forecasts EUR/USD to reach 1.23 by spring before falling - Investing.com UK

2025-11-24 08:00Z

Read full speech on news.google.com

Tweet LinkedIn Email

At a Glance

Morgan Stanley's latest projection for EUR/USD indicates a bullish outlook, forecasting the pair to reach 1.23 by spring 2026 before a subsequent decline. This call reflects confidence in the euro's relative strength against the dollar amid expected changes in monetary policy and economic indicators.

Key Takeaways

01Morgan Stanley projects EUR/USD to reach 1.23 by spring 2026 before declining.
02This perspective reflects anticipated changes in interest rate policies and Eurozone economic growth.
03Market consensus remains more conservative, with targets primarily around 1.1800.

Full Analysis

What the desk is arguing

Morgan Stanley's expectation for EUR/USD to hit 1.23 by spring highlights a significant bullish sentiment, supported by anticipated interest rate dynamics and economic recovery in the Eurozone. The firm is leaning on factors such as potential easing of U.S. monetary policy and sustained economic growth in Europe as catalysts for this upward movement in the exchange rate.

However, they also caution that after reaching this peak, a retracement is likely, suggesting a more complex interplay of market factors that could lead to a decline later in the year. This view potentially contrasts with other market participants who remain more conservative in their expectations for the euro's strength against the dollar going into 2026.

Where it sits in our coverage

Currently, the consensus target for EUR/USD across various firms stands at 1.1800 for March 2026, with a range between 1.1700 and 1.2000, reflecting a more moderate outlook than Morgan Stanley's bullish forecast. Their own target aligns closely with the upper end of that range but suggests a strong upward momentum from current levels, which could create divergence in market sentiment.

Notably, several key players project targets close to Morgan Stanley's, but with slight variations: - JPMorgan: Mar26 1.1800 - Goldman: Mar26 1.1800 - MUFJ: Mar26 1.1800

How other firms see it

Several other firms maintain a more cautious tone regarding the euro's outlook against the dollar, reflecting the potential for macroeconomic headwinds. For instance, BofA projects a more conservative Mar26 target of 1.1700, indicating they are aligned with a bearish view overall.

Conversely, some firms take a more optimistic stance, although their targets still fall short of Morgan Stanley's bullish expectations: - Goldman: Mar26 1.1800 - ING: Mar26 1.1900 - MUFJ: Mar26 1.1800

Market Implications

If Morgan Stanley's outlook materializes, it may prompt adjustments in positioning among traders, particularly those betting on dollar strength. A solid movement towards 1.23 could also ignite options activity and reshape hedging strategies within forex markets as investor sentiment adapts to new projections.

EUR/USD — All Desk Targets

28 desks

Firm	Stance	YE 2027	vs Cons.
Goldman Sachs	Bearish	1.1200	-4.7%
UOB	Neutral	1.1450	-2.6%
Citi	Bearish	1.1000	-6.4%

From the original

<a href="https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiwAFBVV95cUxOdzZwOVBxdjZkSnEwdEVIOFU5bG5IaGlla1o3VEtEZDZDRWJTTDJJaS12TEh0dGJqdEF6OS03NW9HTThSMHkxMFpmNkNGaTFFb2k4cDFEbFRIQ3FncFJZVmN0TERpcmMwNU1WM21kbjBCVXNGeFZqMEIwUFRkQkYtQjFOTlpkODJDQ3U4YXZkNVVsUWFHTjh1d3B2SWg4dWNpWldxc2xSa2I4N1

Read full original at news.google.com →

Related speeches

4 items

GOOGLE NEWS · EUR/USD2025-09-10

Morgan Stanley Euro To Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD At 1.25 By June 2026 - Exchange Rates Org UK

Morgan Stanley has projected a bullish outlook for the EUR/USD, forecasting a target of 1.25 by June 2026. This perspective reflects a broader confidence in the euro's appreciation against the dollar, driven by potential macroeconomic dynamics favoring the Eurozone.

GOOGLE NEWS · EUR/USD2025-11-24