New week, catch up time! Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole remarks lift rate hike odds, pressure stocks
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Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remark s pushed the implied probability of a September rate rise to around 58 percent from 35 percent a day earlier, a sharp repricing for such a short window. Short-term Treasury yields rose more than longer-dated ones, reflecting the direct link betwe
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BofA says Warsh's Jackson Hole speech raises pressure for September hike
Bank of America's analysis, per the full note [source], argues that Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech has effectively boxed him into a September rate hike, with only a pronounced softening in upcoming data able to justify a hold. The speech also provided a concrete framework for inflation monitoring—core PCE and the share of the basket above 3%—which could reduce market volatility around individual data prints. This view contrasts with Goldman Sachs, which still sees the Fed on hold. With the August jobs report and inflation data as the pivotal catalysts, the market is now pricing a near coin-flip for September.
Fed dot plot backs hawks as Warsh tone rattles markets more than the hike
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