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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 39 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 39 institutional desks. No promotion.
The desk interprets the recent narrowing of Poland's current account deficit, attributed to early EU farm payments, as a positive indicator for the country's economic resilience. Specifically, the deficit declined to €0.8 billion in September, significantly outperforming consensus expectations of €2.5 billion and previous months’ figures. This data suggests that while certain areas like net exports remain under pressure, strong services performance is providing a buffer against economic slowdown. Per the full note , this trend may have implications for the zloty as it stabilizes amidst broader macroeconomic pressures.
The reduction in Poland’s current account deficit in September to €0.8 billion reflects improving dynamics in the primary income account and robust service sector performance, which contrasts with persistent challenges in merchandise exports. The National Bank of Poland's insights highlight a more favorable balance compared to previous years, as services surged to a surplus of €3.3 billion, supporting resilience in the face of global trade slowdowns.
Additionally, the expectation of a current account deficit at 1.5% of GDP for 2026 is noteworthy. While trade in goods has shown weakness, the burgeoning services sector provides a counterbalance, indicating that Poland’s economic health is supported by diverse revenue streams amid external pressures.
Our current consensus for the EUR/PLN stands at 1.075, with a range from 1.04 to 1.12. Key firms’ forecasts include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26)
The desk's outlook is closely aligned with the upper end of this consensus range, reflecting confidence in the zloty given recent positive economic signals, especially in services.
Firms aligning with this outlook include jpmorgan and others that emphasize the positive implications of service sector strength on the zloty. Conversely, bofa takes a more cautious stance, indicating potential vulnerabilities in the goods trade.
As partners and trading dynamics shift, watch for related pairs such as EUR/PLN and the potential influence of Polish monetary policy as it strives for stability against broader European trends.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
Market implications
Traders should closely monitor the EUR/PLN level around 1.075 as the zloty shows signs of stabilization. Furthermore, any upcoming indications from the National Bank of Poland regarding monetary policy shifts may influence pricing dynamics significantly.
Risks to this view
A reversal in the current trend could be prompted by worsening merchandise export data or a significant decline in service sector performance. Should the primary income balance deteriorate, it would challenge the positives outlined in the current account report.
Older quick take Quick take Published 15:30 Poland Translate Poland’s current account deficit narrows on early EU farm payments Poland’s September current account deficit narrowed to €0.8bn, helped by early EU farm subsidies. Services remained strong, but net exports likely weighed on 3Q26 GDP growth. We forecast the deficit at 1.5% of GDP in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027 The current account balance was surprisingly strong in September at -€0.8bn (our forecast: -€2.4bn; consensus: -€2.5bn), compared with -€3.5bn in August this year and -€0.9bn in September 2025.
As a result, the current account deficit narrowed to 1.3% of GDP on a rolling 12-month basis, from 1.4% of GDP in August. Nevertheless, the goods trade deficit widened in August on the same basis to 1.6% of GDP, from 1.5% of GDP a month earlier. The NBP release was not a surprise, as Statistics Poland's goods trade figures published earlier in the morning had already pointed to a similar trade balance and relatively strong exports and imports growth.
The current account deficit in September comprised the following components: A merchandise trade deficit of €1.8bn, compared with €3.0bn in August. The goods trade deficit coincided with a slowdown in trade turnover. Export growth in euro terms slowed to 9.7% YoY (from 13.5% in August), while import growth eased to 11.9% YoY (from 15.5% a month earlier).
Rising international trade prices had a significant impact on trade values, with investment related to artificial intelligence providing an additional factor; A large and growing services trade surplus of €3.3bn, compared with €3.0bn in August; Deficits on the primary income account (-€2.1bn, compared with -€3.8bn a month earlier) and the secondary income account (-€0.1bn, compared with +€0.3bn in August). According to the NBP, the surprising improvement in the primary income balance, which had not been seen in September in previous years, reflected earlier advance payments of direct subsidies to farmers under the Common Agricultural Policy than in previous years. According to NBP analysts, like the previous month, the strongest growth in exports was recorded in computer equipment, while sales of aircraft engines, petroleum products and raw silver also rose strongly.
By contrast, the value of passenger car and parts exports declined, while the downward trend in furniture exports continued. Imports reached a record PLN152bn, amid strong growth in fuels and computer components (a re-export category). Based on today's data, we estimate that net exports probably had a negative contribution to 3.5% YoY GDP growth posted in the third quarter of 2026 (today's flash estimate), following a positive contribution of 0.5 percentage points in the second quarter of 2026.
External conditions are not conducive to export expansion by Polish companies. External demand from Western Europe is moderate (we forecast eurozone GDP growth to slow to 1.0% in 2026, from 1.2% last year), rising energy commodity prices are worsening the terms of trade (Brent crude prices are more than 50% higher than a year ago, while natural gas prices are three times as high), and Polish exporters are being displaced from European supply chains by Chinese companies (as seen, for example, in exports of cars and car parts, as well as furniture). We expect the current account deficit to GDP to rise slightly by the end of the year (we forecast a deficit of 1.5% of GDP for the full year, widening to 1.9% of GDP in 2027, compared with a deficit of 1.0% in 2025).
Despite the expected deterioration this year, Poland's external imbalance remains small and does not materially affect the zloty's exchange rate. Comparison of current account balances in August and September 2026, €bn Source: NBP data, ING calculations. "> Source: NBP data, ING calculations. Poland zloty Poland trade balance Content Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives.
The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Author Leszek Kasek Senior Economist, Poland Older quick take
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