Preview: Nagel and Klingbeil in Bangkok: three themes as the ECB weighs a December hike
EUR/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
UOB | Bearish | 1.1140 |
TMGM | Neutral | 1.1450 |
MUFG | Neutral | 1.1200 |
From the original
The euro and short-dated Bunds are most sensitive to any steer from Nagel on December. A clear endorsement of a further hike would firm rate support for the single currency. Any nod to French fiscal strain as a reason for caution would point the other way. Oil remains the key dri
Related speeches
4 itemsECB's Nagel says oil now a key inflation gauge, mild restrictive rates not ruled out
ICYMI - ECB's Nagel says bank must stay vigilant but too early to call rate hikes
Preview: ECB set to hold rates in July, hints of September hike expected: ING
The ECB appears poised to maintain its current rates during the July meeting, with market participants leaning towards a hawkish hold that anticipates a September rate hike. Per the full note from ING, the bank forecasts EUR/USD stability around 1.140 and Bund yields at 3.15% in a hawkish hold scenario. Conversely, signs of dovishness could push EUR/USD lower to around 1.130 and yield a further drop in Bund yields. Given the current environment, the desk underscores the significance of oil price movements and potential ECB sentiment shifts as we look ahead to September decisions.