Preview - RBNZ tightening path in focus as economists disagree on expectations survey
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The split between Westpac and ASB matters more than the headline forecast itself, since it signals genuine uncertainty over how sticky the oil-driven inflation shock is proving in household and business psychology, precisely the dynamic the RBNZ is watching most closely as it tig
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4 itemsPreview - RBNZ tightening path in focus as economists disagree on expectations survey - investingLive
Preview: Inflation and growth strength point to further RBNZ tightening, BNZ says
RBNZ preview: A closer call than markets expect
The desk anticipates a potential interest rate hike at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's upcoming meeting on May 27, although it acknowledges that the RBNZ's tendency towards dovishness may lead to a 'hawkish hold'. Per the full note from ing-think, there is an underappreciated risk of tightening, with expectations suggesting the first of two hikes could occur as early as July. With external factors likely to drive NZD movements, market participants should remain vigilant. Supporting arguments for a hike include evolving inflation data suggesting underlying pressures and a global economic recovery, particularly as the RBNZ has previously suggested readiness to act if necessary. As such, new projections could indicate a tightening cycle starting in Q3, reflecting a shift in the central bank's stance. While the desk leans towards anticipating these hikes, it implicitly dismisses the counter viewpoint that favors a prolonged period of policy accommodation—arguing instead that inflationary pressures are likely to prompt action sooner rather than later.
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