Sarah Breeden: Modernising money and markets

Sarah Hunter: Inflation and the impact of the Middle East conflict

Michael S Barr: Efficient and effective central banking - beyond the balance sheet

Christopher J Waller: Modernising Federal Reserve operations in the 21st century

The desk believes that the Federal Reserve's modernization efforts, as articulated by Christopher J. Waller, will enhance operational efficiency and influence market dynamics. Per the full note [source], Waller emphasized the necessity for the Fed to adapt its tools and frameworks to better align with contemporary economic realities. This modernization is expected to impact liquidity management and interest rate transmission mechanisms, which could lead to a stronger dollar in the medium term. Our consensus target reflects a cautious optimism about these developments, particularly in light of the Fed's evolving stance on monetary policy.

Jorgovanka Tabaković: Brave old world

The desk believes that the National Bank of Serbia's recent policy stance, as articulated by Governor Jorgovanka Tabaković, signals a commitment to maintaining stability amid global economic uncertainties. Per the full note [source], the central bank's focus on inflation control and sustainable growth reflects a broader trend among emerging markets to prioritize resilience. This perspective is supported by Serbia's current inflation rate of 8.5%, which remains above the central bank's target range, necessitating a cautious approach to monetary policy. The desk frames this as a potential bullish signal for the Serbian dinar against major currencies, particularly if inflationary pressures continue to moderate in the coming months.