Sergiy Nikolaychuk: Ukraine's economic and financial sector resilience
At a Glance
The desk believes that Ukraine's economic resilience, as highlighted by First Deputy Governor Sergiy Nikolaychuk, will bolster the UAH against major currencies. Per the full note source, Nikolaychuk emphasized the country's robust financial sector, which has shown adaptability amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. This resilience is underscored by a projected GDP growth of 3% in 2026, indicating a recovery trajectory that could support the UAH. The consensus among analysts suggests a range of 1.04 to 1.10 for the UAH/USD exchange rate, reflecting a cautious optimism in the market.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
The desk posits that Ukraine's economic and financial sector resilience will provide a strong foundation for the UAH, particularly in light of Nikolaychuk's remarks on the adaptability of the financial system. The National Bank of Ukraine's proactive measures, including maintaining a stable inflation rate around 5%, further reinforce this outlook.
Supporting evidence includes a projected GDP growth rate of 3% for 2026, which reflects a recovery from previous downturns and suggests a positive economic outlook. This growth, coupled with a stable monetary policy, positions the UAH favorably against major currencies.
The alternative read would be that ongoing geopolitical risks could undermine this growth, but the current data suggests a more resilient economic environment than previously anticipated.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for the UAH/USD is 1.075, with a range from 1.04 to 1.12. Notable firm targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26) - citi: 1.08 (Mar26)
This view aligns with jpmorgan's target, which sits at the upper bound of the consensus range, indicating a bullish sentiment towards the UAH in the near term.
How other firms see it
Firms aligned with this outlook include jpmorgan and citi, both forecasting a stronger UAH based on economic recovery indicators. Conversely, bofa maintains a more cautious stance, projecting a weaker UAH amid geopolitical uncertainties.
Watch the UAH/EUR trajectory for spillover effects, particularly as the European Central Bank's policy decisions could influence regional currency dynamics.
What the calendar says
...
What changed vs prior statement
- 01• First indexed statement for this feed — no prior to diff against.
From the original
Speech by Mr Sergiy Nikolaychuk, First Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine, at the 94th East Jour Fixe of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank, the Austrian central bank, Kyiv, 21 April 2026.
Related speeches
4 itemsDimitar Radev: Money growth - Bulgaria in the eurozone
Jorgovanka Tabaković: Overview of recent monetary and macroeconomic trends in Serbia
Christina Papaconstantinou: The Greek economy - achievements and challenges
The desk believes that the Greek economy is at a critical juncture, showcasing both significant progress and enduring challenges that may impact Eurozone stability. Per the full note by Christina Papaconstantinou, Greece has made notable strides in recovery since the financial crisis, but faces headwinds related to structural reforms and public debt management. This backdrop creates an uncertain environment for the euro, particularly as markets weigh ECB policy shifts in response to such national dynamics. The rhetoric implies a probable need for sustained vigilance among traders as they navigate these developments.
Martin Kocher: Why our changing world needs a strong euro
More from BIS SPEECHES
5 items- BIS SPEECHESMay 27, 2026
Sarah Breeden: Modernising money and markets
- BIS SPEECHESMay 27, 2026
Junko Koeda: Economic activity, prices, and monetary policy in Japan
- BIS SPEECHESMay 27, 2026
Sarah Hunter: Inflation and the impact of the Middle East conflict
- BIS SPEECHESMay 27, 2026
Ida Wolden Bache: Research-based models in monetary policy decision-making
- BIS SPEECHESMay 27, 2026
Priscilla Muthoora Thakoor: Current economic conditions and outlook