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Taiwan’s trade boom prompts another growth upgrade

Taiwan's May trade data smashed expectations with exports surging 51.7% YoY, driven by AI-related semiconductor demand and a record year for trade in 2025. The strong export performance and rising inflation increase the risk of central bank tightening by the CBC later this year. Our internal consensus sees USD/TWD trending lower, but the tightening risk may cap further TWD strength. Calendar catalysts are sparse, but the next CBC decision in July will be key.