FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 35 institutional desks. No promotion.
Live cross-firm bank consensus across 35 desks — FX, oil & gold
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In this edition, Jonathan Jayarajan, Head of European Equity Product and Sanjay Raja, Chief UK Economist take a deep dive into the upcoming UK Budget and discuss the potential policy outcomes.
The desk views the recent announcements from new UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham as pivotal for the short-term trajectory of the British economy and the British pound. Specifically, the proposed VAT cuts on electricity and bus fare caps represent direct fiscal stimuli aimed at alleviating household cost burdens, potentially bolstering consumer sentiment and spending in an increasingly resilient economic landscape. Per the full note from MUFG EMEA, notable data points, such as a headline inflation decrease to 2.6%, indicate an easing pressure on consumers, which could contribute to a more stable macroeconomic environment. The ongoing economic rebound, complemented by favorable retail sales and improving business sentiment, suggests a supportive backdrop for GBP positioning among traders.