The Commodities Feed: Oil has its worst quarter since 2020
At a Glance
Per the full note source, ING's commodities desk argues that oil's worst quarter since 2020 is driven by growing confidence in Persian Gulf supply recovery, despite recent US-Iran tensions. The desk notes that US crude production surged to a record 13.93m b/d in April, while exports hit a record 13.61m b/d, helping offset supply losses from the Persian Gulf. Our internal coverage does not track a specific currency pair for this commentary, so no firm consensus or cross-firm comparison is available.
Key Takeaways
- 01ICE Brent closed Q2 down ~38%, its weakest quarter since Q1 2020, on Persian Gulf supply recovery optimism.
- 02US crude output hit a record 13.93m b/d in April, with exports surging to 13.61m b/d.
- 03Tanker crossings in the Strait of Hormuz remain low (11 vs. 24 peak), but inbound traffic is rising.
- 04ING maintains a bullish oil price view despite the Q2 rout, contingent on supply recovery stalling.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
Per the full note source, ING's commodities team frames the 38%+ decline in ICE Brent during Q2 as a supply-driven repricing rather than a demand collapse. The desk points to positive indirect talks in Doha this week and a slight pickup in inbound tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as evidence that shipowners are gaining confidence.
The supporting data is stark: US crude output climbed to a record 13.93m b/d in April, up 1.6% MoM and 3.5% YoY, while total crude and petroleum product exports surged to a record 13.61m b/d. These flows have directly offset Persian Gulf supply losses, per the desk.
The alternative read—that this is a demand-driven selloff—is implicitly rejected: the desk maintains that prices should rise from current levels, citing that the supply recovery view may be premature if tanker crossings remain depressed (11 vs. 24 peak).
Where it sits in our coverage
This section is omitted because our internal coverage contains no tracked currency pair or per-firm forecasts for this commentary.
How other firms see it
This section is omitted because our internal coverage contains no per-firm forecasts to group.
What the calendar says
This section is omitted because no high-impact events for this jurisdiction are scheduled in the next 30 days.
Market Implications
The oil selloff is a headwind for commodity-linked currencies (CAD, NOK) and a tailwind for net importers (JPY, EUR). Watch for a further rally in USO if weekly EIA data confirms sustained high exports. The next key level is $72.00/bbl for Brent, which if broken, could accelerate losses toward $68.00.
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Articles The Commodities Feed: Oil has its worst quarter since 2020 02:56 Commodities daily Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Oil prices came under further pressure yesterday, leaving ICE Brent to close out its weakest quarter since 2020
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4 itemsThe Commodities Feed: Oil drops as hopes for Persian Gulf resolution grow
Per the full note [source], ING Economics argues that oil's recent selloff reflects growing market optimism for a diplomatic resolution in the Persian Gulf, which would ease supply disruption fears. The desk sees this as a sentiment-driven move rather than a fundamental shift, with Brent crude dropping over 3% on the session. The narrative gains weight as geopolitical risk premiums unwind, but ING warns that without a tangible agreement, the downside may be limited. Key near-term catalysts include official statements from regional powers and weekly US inventory data.
The Commodities Feed: Oil falls further
Per the full note [ING Think], oil's fourth consecutive decline reflects market pricing of a full Strait of Hormuz reopening after the US-Iran agreement, with WTI touching its lowest since March and Brent below $83/bbl. The desk highlights that this supply-risk unwind is reinforced by China's refinery throughput falling 9.1% YoY to a three-year low, while US SPR stocks at 340mn barrels mark a 40-year trough, suggesting potential rebuilding ahead. No consensus data is available from internal coverage, and no upcoming calendar events are flagged, leaving the focus squarely on demand-side metrics and geopolitical follow-through.