The Global Rise in Long-Term Yields and Public Debt

Friday Rates Update

The desk believes that the current dynamics in global yield curves, particularly in the USD, EUR, and GBP markets, suggest a cautious outlook for interest rates moving forward. Per the full note [source], the discussion highlights key factors such as issuance patterns and investor behavior, notably influenced by the recent Dutch pension reform. This backdrop sets the stage for potential shifts in market sentiment, especially as we analyze the implications of central bank policies in the US and Europe.

The Blockade, Supply Chains and Yields

Four Charts for Sunday

Global Rates: 2026 Global government issuance outlook

The desk anticipates a significant increase in developed market (DM) government bond issuance by 2026, driven by rising fiscal needs and potential shifts in monetary policy. Per the full note from J.P. Morgan, the projected issuance is expected to reach unprecedented levels, reflecting both economic recovery efforts and inflationary pressures. This outlook aligns with broader expectations of increased government spending, particularly in response to demographic shifts and climate initiatives. With no major calendar events in the immediate future, traders should focus on positioning ahead of this anticipated issuance spike.