The long-term look at US labor force participation is ugly and getting worse
From the original
There are so many things to like about the US economy but this is an ugly chart. US labor force participation fell another 0.3 percentage points in June to 61.5% and excluding the pandemic, is now at the lowest since 1976, when women still hadn't fully entered the labor force. Fo
Related speeches
4 itemsUBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Still not hiring'
Lead — Paul Donovan from UBS highlights the deteriorating quality of US employment data, specifically the recent September report, which indicates an increase in unemployment alongside higher participation from job seekers. The desk interprets this as indicative of a cautious labor market where the narrative of 'no hiring, no firing' holds, supporting stable consumer spending. Per the full note, the data's reliability is compromised due to lower response rates and seasonal adjustments, which may distort actual trends. Traders should keep an eye on how these employment figures play into broader consumption trends in the U.S.
US rate hike talk cools on softer jobs data
The recent weaker-than-expected US jobs data has diminished the likelihood of immediate rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, as highlighted in the latest commentary. Per the full note from ing-think, the economy added only 57,000 jobs in June, significantly below the expected 113,000, with a notable decline in the labor force participation rate revealing deeper worker disengagement. This data points to a potential pause in monetary tightening as the Fed weighs sluggish job growth against inflation indicators. The absence of immediate catalysts on the calendar allows the market to digest this data without the pressure of upcoming economic releases.