Top of the Morning: September Jobs Report, and the week ahead
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As we close out the trading week, Brian and Paul weigh in on the latest jobs data, and what it means for the health of the US economy, along with the course ahead for monetary policy. Plus, we review CIO’s current allocation recommendations, and preview what you can expect in the
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The US labor market continues to exhibit resilience, as evidenced by the January employment report, which recorded a non-farm payroll increase of 143,000—slightly below expectations, yet accompanied by upward revisions for prior months. According to Brian Rose from UBS Chief Investment Office, the three-month moving average of job growth stands at 237,000, alongside a declining unemployment rate at 4% and a notable rise in hourly earnings of 0.5%. This data suggests that the Federal Reserve is not likely to consider rate cuts in the near term, reinforcing the view that risks to the labor market have lessened. With no major events on the calendar this month, the focus will remain on how these labor metrics shape the Fed’s future policy decisions, as outlined in the commentary from UBS [source].