UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Broadening out'
EUR/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
UOB | Bullish | 1.1800 |
ING | Neutral | 1.1700 |
Rabobank | Bullish | 1.1800 |
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Financial markets had, perhaps, hoped that the next US treasury secretary would serve as a defender of free trade in the administration, and at least seek to minimize the severity of US consumer tax hikes. Media reports suggest that the search is being broadened, and commitment t
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4 itemsUBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Trade taxes and the US Treasury'
The desk interprets recent comments from US Treasury Secretary nominee Bessent, emphasizing a concerning misunderstanding of trade tax economics, especially regarding currency appreciation's role in offsetting tariffs. This misalignment highlights potential inflationary pressures which could impact the USD and its major pairs. According to the consensus targets, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1434 with a median forecast of 1.1750 for December 2026. Per the full note [source], the market is left to navigate how these administration policies might influence currency valuations moving forward.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Taxing via tariffs'
The desk is critical of potential tariff implementations from President-elect Trump, interpreting his recent interview as a clear signal that tariff policies will intensify, thus raising consumer prices in the U.S. Per the full note [source], the acknowledgment of the Federal Reserve's independence should bolster market confidence amid these new economic strategies. The desk notes that tariffs could severely dent consumer spending and thereby dampen economic growth, which would subsequently affect the dollar's strength against major currencies in the medium term.
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