UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'D-day or Light Brigade?'
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The US affordability crisis stays in the headlines, with US President Trump suggesting a doubling of tariffs paid by US importers of Canadian cars. However, these tariffs would not take effect until 1 January and investors are likely to assume the US will retreat (this has been t
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4 itemsUBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Tariff time?'
Per the full note [source], UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan downplays the near-term market impact of Trump's proposed pharma tariffs, arguing that the delayed 2027–2029 implementation and likely legal challenges reduce the probability-weight markets assign to them. Donovan's main focus is on the expiration of interim 10% tariffs this Friday, which he sees as limited in inflation impact since most pass-through was already absorbed via the unlawful tariff regime. The desk signals that USD direction remains driven more by the affordability crisis and general trade policy noise rather than this specific headline, with no overt currency call.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Sound and fury'
Per the full note [source], UBS argues Trump's 50% tariff threat against Canada is largely performative, with markets discounting it due to a pattern of escalation that rarely fully materializes. The desk emphasizes that even if unimplemented, the uncertainty is already slowing US factory construction, which fell from 40-year highs in 2024. With no consensus data available for this cross, the call stands alone as a macro sentiment read. No high-impact events in the calendar provide a catalyst in the next 30 days.