UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The data in focus'
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The US June trade balance is due—a number once overlooked but which politics has made it matter. Are international investors rushing to buy more US-made products? They are not (Canadians seem to be rushing in the other direction). Are US consumers less inclined to buy foreign goo
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4 itemsUBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Trade time'
The desk interprets recent stronger-than-expected trade figures from China, particularly in technology sectors, as a key bullish signal for emerging markets and commodity-related currencies. Per the full note from UBS's Paul Donovan, China's exports were bolstered by significant demand for high-tech goods, which constituted almost 30% of its total exports. This backdrop emerges just before the critical US trade data release, which could reignite tariff discussions amid a challenging geopolitical landscape. As traders assess positioning ahead of these events, insights from UBS and related trade statistics will be pivotal.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The great US consumer'
UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan argues the US labor market remains the critical driver of the economy, with consumers spending more and saving less to afford tariffs per the full note [source]. He sees the labor market as strong enough to sustain confidence but not strong enough to create wage pressures, dismissing wage-price spirals as unrealistic. Oil price rises are a near-term inflation perception risk, but the broader narrative supports steady consumer spending, which benefits risk assets.