FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 30 institutional desks. No promotion.
Live cross-firm bank consensus across 30 desks — FX, oil & gold
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The US middle-income consumer is doing just fine, with yesterday’s retail sales data showing little fear of unemployment and a willingness to indulge in the national pastime of spending money. Today’s Michigan consumer sentiment data will tell us about the extraordinary degree of
The desk interprets the recent comments from Paul Donovan at UBS regarding benign US inflation as a signal for the resilience of consumer spending, despite the ongoing deflation in durable goods prices. Per the full note, Donovan highlights that consumer spending power has been bolstered by sustained falls in durable goods prices, which have decreased for 25 consecutive months. As the market prepares for upcoming retail sales data, this dynamic underscores a nuanced view of inflationary pressures and consumption patterns, particularly in the context of expected robust retail sales figures today.