US 10-year yields fall, near 5% level but it's for the wrong reasons
EUR/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
UBS | Bullish | 1.1600 |
ING | Bullish | 1.1300 |
Société Générale | Bearish | 1.1000 |
All 29 desk targets for EUR/USD
From the original
The mood in markets isn't good today but there is some good news below the surface for stock markets and gold. Treasury yields are down 12-14 basis points across the curve as the market gorws increasingly confident that the Fed won't hike rates next week or be overly hawkish. At
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The desk believes the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, having just touched the 5% mark, is likely to test that resistance again, especially in the face of the upcoming Fed meeting. Per the full note from ing-think, the expectation is that a rate hike, which is anticipated by some, could either provide stability or further pressure yields beyond 5%. The commentary rightly notes that the yield dynamics are influenced by a blend of optimistically forecasted productivity, issuance concerns, and geopolitical risks, with the primary focus now being whether the market will journey toward 6%. With the Fed on the cusp of a potentially pivotal decision regarding another 25 basis point (bp) hike, market volatility could increase significantly, marking a crucial junction for the longer end of the curve.
UBS says Fed hike fears overdone as 10-year Treasury yield breaks above 5.1% - investingLive
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