The Japanese yen is once again acting as a safe haven as growth concerns replace inflation fears
USD/JPY — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
UBS | Bearish | 160.00 |
ING | Bullish | 152.00 |
Société Générale | Bearish | 160.00 |
All 24 desk targets for USD/JPY
From the original
USD: The US dollar has recently been driven mainly by growth concerns rather than inflation fears. In fact, despite hotter US inflation data last week, Treasury yields dropped significantly and rate hike probabilities saw a slightly dovish repricing. Given the overstretched long
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Rates Spark: The yen link to US Treasuries
The desk interprets the nuanced relationship between the Japanese yen and US Treasuries, emphasizing how current fiscal pressures and real yields can influence FX dynamics. Per the full note from ing-think, the recent contained US inflation data alleviates some immediate rate pressures, yet the real yields remain elevated, indicating persistent challenges ahead. The projection that intervention to support the yen could have knock-on effects for Treasuries is critical, as it suggests a tighter linkage between these markets that could affect pairs like USD/JPY and EUR/USD. With consensus targets for USD/JPY around 152.0 suggesting a potential for movement, the intersection of these macroeconomic factors remains pivotal.