USD/JPY remains stuck in a tight range amid US-Iran deal optimism and hawkish Fed risk

EUR/USD remains rangebound amid the prolonged US-Iran stalemate and widely expected hikes

The desk maintains a cautious outlook on EUR/USD, anticipating continued rangebound trading amid geopolitical tensions and central bank policy uncertainty. Per the full note [source], the US dollar has found some support as US-Iran negotiations stall, while the Fed's shift away from an easing bias is underscored by resilient economic data. With the market pricing in an 84% chance of a June rate hike from the ECB, the euro faces headwinds despite the potential for inflationary pressures to influence Fed policy. Upcoming US CPI data could serve as a catalyst for volatility in the pair.

USD/JPY continues to edge higher as yen bias stays bearish amid negative macro backdrop

AUD/USD remains stuck in a range as RBA signals a pause and US-Iran stalemate extends

The desk sees AUD/USD remaining rangebound as geopolitical tensions and central bank signals create a cautious environment. Per the full note [source], the US dollar has gained support amid escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, while the RBA's recent pause in rate hikes has left the Australian dollar vulnerable. With the Fed's shift away from an easing bias and the RBA's more neutral stance, the market is positioned for potential volatility as economic data releases loom. Upcoming US data, particularly the NFP report, could serve as a catalyst for movement in the pair.

Indian Rupee recovers losses on lower oil prices, but risks remain on prolonged stalemate