War in the Middle East and its economic impact

Chief Economist's Corner: The Middle East war shapes EU's future energy policy

Global economic outlook: Geopolitical drag

Norway economic outlook: Inflation in focus

In charts: Three scenarios for energy, macro and markets

The desk posits that the ongoing Middle East conflict is likely to exert upward pressure on energy prices, which in turn could influence inflation and central bank policies, particularly in developed economies. Per the full note [source], this scenario suggests that oil and gas markets may experience heightened volatility, with implications for FX markets as traders adjust to shifting macroeconomic indicators. Current positioning indicates a cautious approach, with traders bracing for potential disruptions in energy supply. The consensus among major firms reflects a range of expectations, with specific targets indicating a divergence in outlooks on currency pairs influenced by energy prices.