What could speed up rate cuts in Norway?
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Economic Outlook What could speed up rate cuts? 11-09-2023 Norges Bank has hiked its policy rate faster and warned of a higher interest rate peak than previ-ously. We think the policy rate will peak in September at 4.25%, but we are not sure it will stop there. The interest rate
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4 itemsIda Wolden Bache: Policy rate raised to 4.25 percent
The desk interprets Norges Bank's recent policy rate hike to 4.25% as a clear signal of the central bank's commitment to combating inflation, which has remained stubbornly high in the region. Per the full note [source], Governor Ida Wolden Bache emphasized the need for continued vigilance against inflationary pressures, suggesting that further tightening may be on the table if economic conditions do not improve. This rate adjustment aligns with our expectation of a hawkish stance from Norges Bank, particularly in light of recent economic data indicating persistent inflation above the central bank's target. With no high-impact events on the calendar in the next 30 days, the market will likely focus on the implications of this rate hike and its impact on the NOK's valuation against major currencies.
Norges Bank hikes and keeps guidance hawkish
The desk views the Norges Bank's recent 25 basis point hike to 4.25% as a clear signal of its commitment to combating inflation, which is now seen as a broader concern beyond geopolitical tensions. Per the full note from ing-think, while a hold is anticipated in June, the central bank's hawkish guidance suggests the possibility of another rate increase by year-end. This aligns with our bearish outlook on EUR/NOK, as we expect the krone to strengthen against the euro in the coming months. The current consensus among firms indicates a target range for EUR/NOK that supports this view, with no immediate calendar events expected to disrupt this trajectory.