World outlook: The waiting game...
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Deutsche Bank Research has just released the latest World Outlook, featuring updated views on economics and markets. They have called this edition “The Waiting Game…” because they maintain their call for a US recession in Q4 as the lags from tighter monetary policy really start t
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The desk interprets the current economic landscape as a precarious balancing act for the US, with the potential for recession looming amidst tight monetary policy and persistent inflation. Per the full note [source], while the US banking sector may have stabilized, the broader economic challenges remain significant, particularly as growth expectations pivot towards emerging markets like India and the ASEAN region. This shift suggests a recalibration of risk and opportunity in the FX space, particularly for currencies tied to these emerging economies. Our consensus targets reflect a cautious outlook, with a focus on how these dynamics will influence currency movements in the second half of 2023.