WP - 2026-07-08 - Diego M. Hager and Samuel Reynard: Forecasts, nowcasts and monetary policy lags
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We present a microfounded information mechanism that causes monetary policy transmission lags to be endogenously variable, even when firms are rational and face no exogenous costs of changing prices. Firms must form two distinct expectations, namely, a forecast of future demand a
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4 itemsHow should I be positioned? with Torsten Slok (Apollo) and Jason Draho (UBS CIO)
The desk's interpretation revolves around the shifting landscape of global monetary policy as discussed by Torsten Slok and Jason Draho, emphasizing the need for positions that account for an evolving macro environment. Per the full note [source], the conversation illuminated expectations for US monetary policy and its impact on asset allocations in 2024 and 2025. This is particularly relevant as economic indicators suggest potential easing from the Federal Reserve amid signs of cooling inflation, which could benefit risk assets and certain currency pairs. The reference to macro trends should stimulate careful consideration by traders seeking to align with anticipated market moves in the upcoming year.