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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Nomura | Bearish | 19.20 |
USD/MXN · 2026 Bank Forecast
Spot 18.48 · 17-bank consensus 17.82 (-3.6%) by Dec 2026
Institutional 2026 consensus for USD/MXN, aggregated from 17 major sell-side investment banks. Each firm contributes a Dec-2026 year-end target alongside quarterly checkpoints, read here as a live dollar to peso forecast and prediction set. Below: the distribution shape, outliers, quarterly trajectory, and per-firm breakdown.
Other pairs: EUR/USD · GBP/USD · USD/JPY · USD/CHF · USD/CAD · AUD/USD · NZD/USD
Bank consensus from 17 banks puts USD/MXN at 17.82 (range 17.00–19.20) by Dec 2026 — -3.6% from the last close of 18.48.
USD/MXN — 2026 consensus trajectory · quarter-by-quarter
Quarterly path (Mar · Jun · Sep · Dec) · price-vs-forecast overlay
Per-firm distribution · USD/MXN Dec '26 · sorted table
Per-firm dot plot · all-firms table · per-firm bars · 38 firms
Société Générale | Bullish | 18.80 |
HSBC | Bullish | 18.50 |
J.P. Morgan | Bullish | 18.25 |
BNP Paribas | Bullish | 18.25 |
Rabobank | Bearish | 17.90 |
Citi | Bearish | 17.90 |
Commerzbank | Bullish | 17.80 |
All 17 desk targets for USD/MXN
The cross-bank consensus puts USD/MXN at 17.70 (median) by December 2026, based on the published year-end targets of 17 investment banks. Individual desk targets span 17.00 to 19.20, with a cross-firm mean of 17.82. That spread matters as much as the midpoint: a tight range signals genuine sell-side agreement on the USD/MXN path, while a wide one tells you the desks are split on the macro drivers behind it.
The dollar to peso exchange rate — USD/MXN in market convention — carries a bank consensus of 17.70 (median) for December 2026, drawn from 17 investment banks' published targets, with individual desk forecasts spanning 17.00 to 19.20. A higher USD/MXN reading means a stronger US dollar and a weaker peso; a lower reading means the peso is gaining ground against the dollar.
Nomura currently holds the highest year-end 2026 USD/MXN target among the desks we track, at 19.20 — 8.5% above the cross-bank median. The full board — every covered bank's target, quarterly path and positioning versus consensus — is part of the paid tier.
Continuously. Investment banks revise their published USD/MXN targets as new research lands — typically around central-bank meetings, major data releases and their scheduled forecast rounds. This page recomputes the USD/MXN consensus median, range and per-firm distribution automatically whenever any covered desk publishes a new target, so the aggregate always reflects each bank's latest published view rather than a quarterly snapshot.
Across the major sell-side research desks we track, the most-cited drivers shaping the USD/MXN outlook are banxico not matching fed rate hikes, banxico-fed spread at tightest levels in 25 years, elevated long peso positioning by leveraged funds being forcibly liquidated, mexican local currency debt highly exposed to higher treasury yields, and mid-yield status less attractive relative to brazil and colombia. The single most widely shared of these themes appears in the views of 1 different banks, which makes it the closest thing to a true cross-desk consensus narrative for USD/MXN right now. These are the structural and cyclical forces — the relative monetary-policy paths, growth differentials, fiscal dynamics and capital-flow shifts — that strategists keep returning to when they frame their USD/MXN year-end targets. Watching which of these drivers gains or loses backing over time is often a more durable signal than any single point forecast, because it shows where the institutional debate is actually concentrated.
The main risks that investment-bank strategists flag for USD/MXN center on the scenarios that would push the pair away from the central consensus path. Recurring risk triggers cited across the desks include continued rise in global bond yields and fx volatility forces additional liquidation of leveraged long peso positions; deterioration in global risk appetite disproportionately hitting mid-yielding em currencies; us midterm elections bring renewed focus on usmca and trade restrictions with mexico; and us rates continue rising, widening the pain from the tight banxico-fed spread. These are the alternative paths — the bullish and bearish tail cases — that banks build into their scenario analysis around their base case. Because several independent desks raise overlapping triggers, the clustering itself is informative: it highlights the catalysts the market is most alert to and the conditions under which the USD/MXN consensus would be revised. Monitoring these shared risk narratives helps you understand not just where banks expect USD/MXN to go, but what would make them change their mind.
Our USD/MXN consensus aggregates the published forecasts and research narratives of the major global investment banks, comparing their year-end targets, quarterly paths and the reasoning behind them side by side. Rather than relying on any one house view, the page clusters the drivers and risk scenarios that recur across desks so you can see where the sell side genuinely agrees and where it splits. Each driver above shows how many separate banks cite it, turning a pile of individual reports into a single legible map of institutional conviction. The full per-firm distribution, individual bank targets and the detailed scenario levels behind each view are available to subscribers, while the aggregate consensus picture is open to everyone.