EUR/USD Price Forecasts: Nears weekly top at 1.1435 with bearish momentum easing
The EUR/USD is currently testing resistance near 1.1435 as bearish momentum shows signs of easing. This could indicate a potential for short-term consolidation, with crucial territory for Euro bulls lying just above. Its significance lies in how any breakout above this level could signal further upward momentum, aligning with our broader perspective of a strengthening Euro against the USD. The current sentiment indicates a bullish outlook on the Euro, with further gains likely if the resistance at 1.1435 is decisively overcome.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is 1.1700 (median across firms), supported by forecasts ranging from 1.1200 (Scotiabank) to 1.2000 (UBS). This positioning contrasts with the immediate resistance seen at 1.1435, underscoring potential bullish sentiment among traders who expect a rally.
How firms align
Several firms like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are forecasting targets around 1.1800 to 1.2000 for March 2026, positioning them towards the optimistic end of our coverage. Conversely, Citi remains relatively conservative, with a March target of 1.1300, suggesting a divergence in outlooks.
What the data shows
Recent revisions have seen firms like Scotiabank raising their March target to 1.1734, emphasizing a belief in ongoing Euro strength. Additionally, our published research indicates the EUR/USD sits 4.82% below the December consensus of 1.20, suggesting significant room for appreciation as market dynamics evolve. Refer to our research at /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path for more insights.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD testing key resistance at 1.1435 with potential bullish breakout.
- 02Watch for consolidation signals as bears retreat.
- 03Firm forecasts indicate a median target of 1.1700 for March 2026.
- 04Potential rally if levels are broken, but risks remain.
Market implications
Traders should closely monitor the behavior of EUR/USD around the 1.1435 resistance. A sustained break above could trigger buying momentum towards our consensus target of 1.1700, while trouble securing this level may signal a pullback. Economic data releases later this week could influence positioning significantly.
Risks to this view
Should economic indicators point to stronger-than-expected USD strength or if geopolitical tensions escalate, we could see a reversal in Euro's strength. Additionally, a failure to break above 1.1435 might solidify bearish sentiments and shift expectations among traders.
Sentiment by currency
USD-EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Downside bias builds into NFP against US Dollar – MUFG
Market positioning ahead of US NFP suggests EUR/USD vulnerability on stronger-than-expected employment data, which would support USD strength and widen Fed/ECB policy divergence.
Euro: Fed story caps upside against US Dollar – ING
Fed policy trajectory remains the primary EUR/USD driver; expectations of sustained US rates constrain euro upside.
Euro: Downside risk toward key supports against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD bears have identified technical support breaks as near-term risk; USD strength narrative remains intact absent ECB policy shift.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Approaches 1.1400 as bearish flag remains in play
EUR/USD bearish flag formation suggests continued downside pressure toward 1.1400 with technical confirmation likely to drive algorithm-driven stops through key support.
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