EUR/USD Price Forecast: Rebounds above 1.1350, but outlook stays bearish below key resistance
EUR/USD has exhibited a rebound above the 1.1350 level, but market sentiments suggest that a sustained bullish shift remains elusive. The sentiment scoring indicates a firm bullish bias for the USD, contrasting with the bearish long-term outlook for the EUR. This dynamic places pressure on EUR/USD as it struggles with key technical resistance, while the lack of conviction in the recent bounce raises concerns over the strength of this upward move.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD currently stands at 1.1700 for March 2026, with targets across various firms reflecting a range from 1.1100 (Citi) to 1.2000 (UBS). This suggests a relatively optimistic view from the market, albeit one that aligns somewhat with FXStreet's bearish outlook given the resistance levels.
How firms align
Firms like Deutsche Bank and HSBC have recently set their EUR/USD forecasts above the 1.1700 mark for March 2026, giving credence to a potential bullish tilt depending on future market developments. Conversely, Citi's estimates remain conservative at 1.1300 for the same tenor, indicating a divergence in perspectives.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions show an increasing number of firms adjusting their estimates upward, with both JPMorgan and Goldman targeting 1.1800 for March 2026, hinting at a potential for further positive adjustments if the current moves hold. Our previous research (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path) highlights a significant gap between current trading levels and longer-term consensus expectations, emphasizing market sentiment volatility.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD's bounce lacks conviction despite hitting 1.1350, suggesting persistent bearish sentiment.
- 02Key resistance levels, particularly around 1.1400-1.1500, will dictate short-term trading strategies.
- 03Upcoming economic data may catalyze a strong breakout or further decline, closely watched around 1.1350.
- 04Expect heightened volatility as markets assess central bank comments and economic indicators.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the 1.1350 level closely, as a decisive move above this could signal a shift in sentiment, aligning more closely with our consensus target at 1.1700. Prepare for key economic releases that may impact this range.
Risks to this view
A failure to sustain above 1.1350, particularly if economic data underwhelm, could validate bearish views and lead to a retest of support levels below 1.1300. Additionally, unexpected hawkish signals from the Fed could rapidly change the USD's strength.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.55
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Stabilising above 1.1300 against US Dollar with risk driver – ING
Euro: Downtrend stretched near 1.1325 against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD downtrend extension suggests oversold conditions near 1.1325; watch for mean reversion or fresh bearish catalyst to determine next directional move.
Euro: Bearish bias with scope toward 1.12 against US Dollar – Scotiabank
Scotiabank's 1.12 EUR/USD target implies ~2% downside from current levels, signaling institutional conviction on euro weakness relative to dollar strength.
Euro: Testing 1.1300 risk grows against US Dollar – ING
EUR/USD downside targeting 1.1300 suggests institutional flow increasingly positioned for dollar strength amid widening rate differentials.
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