Rates Spark: Bonds back to hedging market risks
The desk argues that lower oil prices are making bonds more attractive as a hedge against potential equity downturns, particularly amid growing jitters over AI-related economic impacts. Per the full note source, the EU's projection for increased funding requirements and persistent resilience in US macro data suggests a nuanced environment where bond demand could rise. This aligns with recent shifts towards bonds noted, especially as implied volatilities in equity markets approach concerning levels. Upcoming data prints and market movements may reinforce these themes, particularly as traders brace for the outcome of geopolitical developments and economic indicators.
What the desk is arguing
The desk frames this as a pivotal moment for bonds, signaling that they are once again viewed as a viable risk hedge against equity volatility heightened by AI concerns. The commentary identifies the current condition of bond markets being influenced by a combination of lower oil prices and increasing demand for safe-haven assets, which could become more pronounced—a sentiment echoed by the EU's revised funding demand from €160bn to €180bn this year.
Importantly, the resurgence of market concerns over AI's economic drag could amplify bond buying, especially with equities trading near record highs and the VIX index rising close to 20. This reflects an environment where investors are alert to risks despite overarching positive economic indicators, pushing them to seek safety in bonds.
Where it sits in our coverage
For EUR/USD, our consensus target is 1.1700 with a range of 1.1200 to 1.2000. Key targets include ubs at 1.2000, hsbc at 1.1700, and deutschebank at 1.1800 for Dec-26.
Our view aligns closely with the consensus, positioned toward the upper end of the spectrum, indicating confidence in the bond market as a risk mitigation tool amidst current market conditions.
How other firms see it
Firms including us and ubs appear aligned in their expectations for appreciation in the euro, suggesting a broad agreement on the attractiveness of bonds under current conditions. On the contrary, citi and mufg express a more cautious stance towards EUR expectations, anticipating a potential retracement.
This evolving narrative in bond markets echoes back to the recent dynamics of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs, as changes in investor sentiment influence the trajectories of these currencies in relation to rate expectations and geopolitical factors.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Lower oil prices boost confidence in bonds as hedges against equity risks.
- 02EU's increased funding needs suggest growing bond demand amid market turbulence.
- 03The current macroeconomic resilience, especially in the US, may delay aggressive Fed responses.
- 04Increased implied volatility in equities indicates a shift towards safer assets like bonds.
Market implications
Traders should closely monitor the EUR/USD trajectory, particularly around the consensus target of 1.1700, as market sentiment can quickly shift. Additionally, the upcoming release of macro data could serve as a catalyst for adjustments in both equity and bond positions.
Risks to this view
Potential catalysts that could invalidate this view include an unexpected resolution in geopolitical tensions, a stronger-than-anticipated economic report that boosts equity markets sharply, or a Federal Reserve pivot that surprises the market, prompting a reassessment of rate expectations.
EUR/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Scotiabank | Bearish | 1.1200 |
Bank of America | Bearish | 1.1200 |
ANZ | Bearish | 1.1400 |
Articles Rates Spark: Bonds back to hedging market risks 07:26 Rates Spark Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Lower oil prices should give investors more confidence in holding bonds as a hedge against equity downturns. If AI jitters were to challenge broader sentiment, and even turn into an economic risk, we could see demand for rates pick up. Meanwhile, the EU has confirmed that total funding demand for this year will increase from €160bn to €180bn Michiel Tukker With oil prices easing, bonds should become more attractive again as a hedge against AI jitters Bonds once again an attractive hedge against market jitters The prospect of a deal between the US and Iran helped market optimism, but AI jitters might be the next source of rates volatility.
On the equities side, we see that implied volatilities shot higher, with the VIX close to 20 again. Overall, indices continue to trade close to record highs, but we do see more idiosyncratic sell-offs with the SpaceX IPO being the most prominent one. The hawkish tilt from the Fed does not help either, and a drift higher in longer real rates can be a challenge to valuations.
With US macro data still showing resilience, the Fed won’t be quick to respond to turmoil in the equities market, but is not entirely immune either. PMIs on Tuesday were well above 50, which is consistent with the earlier robust payroll numbers. Having said that, much of the economy is being pulled by AI-related investments.
Mounting concerns about AI’s earning potential can therefore easily turn into a real economic drag. In addition, a sharp decline in share prices would hurt the already fragile consumer confidence. In such scenarios, the markets’ assessment of two more Fed hikes seems well overdone.
And with oil prices coming down, bonds should start looking more attractive as a risk hedge. A few weeks ago we noticed the record positive correlation between bonds and equities. But the correlation should start to normalise going forward.
The recent push higher in rates was more driven by real rates than inflation expectations. If growth concerns were to take over now, we can expect those real rates to revert lower. In this case, the gains in bonds would offset equity losses, restoring the negative correlation.
EU confirms €80bn funding plan for the second half of the year At the start of the week, the EU concluded its €100bn bond funding for the first half of the year with a final auction raising €7.8bn. Now the EU has confirmed the funding plan for the second half at €80bn, to reach a total of €180bn for the year. Following the adoption of the Ukraine support package, the EU had already earlier this year indicated an increase of its initial €160bn funding plan by €20bn.
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