Euro: Stabilising above 1.1300 against US Dollar with risk driver – ING
The Euro has stabilized above the 1.1300 threshold against the US Dollar, driven by recent risk factors noted by ING. Current market sentiment remains neutral across major currencies, but the underlying dynamics suggest a potential upward trajectory for the Euro. With a consensus target set at 1.1700 for March 2026, there is a notable divergence among firms regarding future expectations, which is critical for traders to monitor.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across 12 firms), with UBS at the upper bound (1.2000) and Citi at the lower (1.1300). ING's view is somewhat aligned with this upper range, reflecting a cautious optimism about the Euro's stability above 1.1300.
How firms align
Firms such as Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs have set targets of 1.1800 for March 2026, indicating a bullish stance that matches ING's outlook. Meanwhile, Citi's lower target of 1.1300 contrasts sharply with this more optimistic perspective, showcasing the range of expectations in the markets.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions suggest a more bullish trend, with JPMorgan and Goldman both signaling upward revisions to the Euro's value in their latest reports. This shift indicates that many firms are reassessing their positions positively as the market dynamics evolve.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Euro currently stable above 1.1300, an important psychological level.
- 02Traders should monitor the divergence in firm forecasts — a spread from 1.1300 to 1.2000.
- 03Upcoming ECB meetings could serve as catalysts for further movement.
- 04A sustained breach above the 1.1500 level could signal broader bullish sentiment.
Market implications
Investors should watch for Euro movements around the critical level of 1.1500, especially leading up to the ECB's upcoming decisions. Monitoring the range between 1.1300 and 1.2000 will be essential to gauge market positioning accurately.
Risks to this view
A shift in economic data or a change in ECB policies could invalidate the current Euro strength. Specifically, disappointing economic indicators could force a reversal back below 1.1300, prompting a reevaluation of bullish bets.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Downtrend stretched near 1.1325 against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD downtrend extension suggests oversold conditions near 1.1325; watch for mean reversion or fresh bearish catalyst to determine next directional move.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Rebounds above 1.1350, but outlook stays bearish below key resistance
EUR/USD bounce to 1.1350 lacks conviction; structural bearish bias persists until sustained break above key technical resistance.
Euro: Bearish bias with scope toward 1.12 against US Dollar – Scotiabank
Scotiabank's 1.12 EUR/USD target implies ~2% downside from current levels, signaling institutional conviction on euro weakness relative to dollar strength.
Euro: Testing 1.1300 risk grows against US Dollar – ING
EUR/USD downside targeting 1.1300 suggests institutional flow increasingly positioned for dollar strength amid widening rate differentials.
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