EUR/USD Price Forecast: Looks to extend intraday descent below 1.1400 on firmer USD
EUR/USD is currently attempting a downward breach below the 1.1400 mark as the US dollar shows renewed strength. This movement aligns with recent forecasts indicating a bearish sentiment for the Euro amidst tightening monetary conditions in the Eurozone. The sharp focus on the technical levels will be crucial for traders as a breach below 1.1400 could signal further declines towards the next support levels, reinforcing the bullish outlook on the USD overall.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is currently at 1.1700 (median across 12 firms), with the highest aim set at 1.2000 by UBS and the lowest at 1.1100 by Citi. The recent sentiment from the source highlights an immediate risk to this outlook, reflecting a weaker EUR and a stronger USD in the short term.
How firms align
In contrast to the negative projection from the current headline, firms such as HSBC and JPMorgan maintain a more bullish stance with targets at 1.1700 and 1.1800 for March 2026 respectively. This indicates a divergence from the bearish sentiment suggested in the headline, adding complexity to the short-term trading narrative. The more conservative estimates from Scotiabank and Citi, however, do reflect some alignment with the caution expressed in the source.
What the data shows
Recent revisions have adjusted targets slightly upwards for March 2026, with JPMorgan and Goldman moving to 1.1800, suggesting a more robust outlook than what may be implied by current price action. For additional insights, see our research on the EUR/USD path in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Breaching 1.1400 could trigger further declines in EUR/USD.
- 02Recent forecasts suggest a consensus target of 1.1700.
- 03Watch for USD strength following upcoming economic data releases.
- 04Market positioning will be key as technical signals evolve.
Market implications
Monitor the 1.1400 level closely as breaking below this threshold may invite aggressive selling. Additionally, upcoming US economic indicators could further influence USD strength and add volatility to EUR/USD trading.
Risks to this view
A reversal in this bearish view could occur if new data emerges showing stronger-than-expected economic growth in the Eurozone, or if shifts in Fed policy signal a slower pace of dollar strengthening. A pullback above 1.1400 may also invalidate the current bearish sentiment.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.60
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Political and growth risks point lower against US Dollar – HSBC
HSBC identifies structural euro weakness from political and growth headwinds, supporting USD strength in medium term.
Euro: Range trading likely to persist against US Dollar – Scotiabank
Euro: Sintra seasonality points to tactical strength against US Dollar – BNY
Seasonal patterns around ECB Sintra conference suggest tactical EUR/USD strength window ahead; monitor for positioning unwinds if data disappoints.
EUR/USD Price Forecasts: Struggling to regain 1.1400 amid geopolitical uncertainty
EUR/USD rejection below 1.1400 signals geopolitical risk premium supporting USD safe-haven positioning.
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