Euro: Range trade around key supports against US Dollar – UOB
The Euro is currently trading in a range around key support levels against the US Dollar, hovering at 1.1434. Analysts at UOB point to substantial support zones that traders should watch closely, particularly with existing sentiment remaining neutral across currencies. This range-bound trading is particularly relevant as we look ahead to potential shifts in monetary policy, which could influence the Euro's trajectory in the near term.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across firms), with Goldman at the upper bound (1.1800) and Citi at the lower bound (1.1300). UOB’s perspective aligns well with our consensus view, highlighting the importance of maintaining a close watch on the Euro’s performance around the current level.
How firms align
Commerzbank and MUFG have targets reflecting bullish sentiment towards the Euro, with Commerzbank projecting 1.1900 for March 2026, while MUFG sees a target of 1.1800 for the same period. These positions suggest support for UOB’s analysis of key levels, contrasting with Citi's more cautious target of 1.1300 (source: /reports/citi).
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions indicate that MUFG has adjusted its Mar26 target higher to 1.1800, while HSBC has revised theirs to 1.1700, signaling a potential bullish shift. Notably, our published research underscores a significant divergence, with EUR/USD trading 4.74% below the December 2026 consensus of 1.20 (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path).
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD trades at 1.1434, in a range near key support.
- 02Key levels need monitoring, especially with neutral sentiment.
- 03Bullish targets from Commerzbank (1.1900) contrast with Citi's caution (1.1300).
Market implications
Traders should watch for volatility around key support levels as data releases and monetary policy signals could alter sentiment. The consensus target of 1.1700 for March 2026 suggests potential upward momentum if support holds.
Risks to this view
A failure to maintain above current support levels may lead to a bearish reversal, particularly should economic data signal a stronger than expected recovery in the US economy.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro gains as US Dollar moves sideways amid market caution
USD consolidation following risk-off positioning creates near-term EUR/USD strength absent fresh Fed hawkish signals.
Euro: Upside bias against US Dollar as ECB repriced – Scotiabank
ECB repricing cycle supports EUR/USD recovery; USD weakness likely to persist as rate differentials compress.
Euro: Upside bias held above strong support against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD holding above key support level suggests technicians see limited near-term downside and may increase bids on dips toward 1.08–1.09 levels.
Euro Summer range holds against US Dollar – Commerzbank
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