EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bulls struggle to breach a previous support near 1.1600
The EUR/USD pair continues to face significant resistance near the 1.1600 mark, suggesting a consolidation phase as bulls struggle to break this level. Despite recent attempts to rally, the market sentiment remains bearish on the euro, reflecting fears of economic headwinds in the Eurozone. With the current spot at 1.1550, traders are keenly watching for breakout signals, especially as previous support levels indicate potential technical support around this area.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1717, with a range spanning from 1.1200 to 1.2000 across various firms. Notably, BofA presents a more conservative outlook at 1.1700 for March 2026, while CIBC targets a more optimistic 1.1866 for the same horizon.
How firms align
Several firms are positioning their targets in line with the current resistance, with Barclays and Nomura both forecasted at 1.1700 for March 2026, reflecting a more cautious approach compared to the median consensus. This contrasts with firms like Citi, which is looking lower with a target of 1.1300 for the same period, indicating mixed sentiment.
What the data shows
Recent revisions highlight growing caution among forecasters, especially with firms like Deutsche Bank now targeting 1.1800 for March 2026. Our research published on /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path discusses how EUR/USD trading is diverging from overall expectations, currently sitting 3% below the December consensus of 1.2000.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD faces strong resistance at 1.1600; current spot at 1.1550.
- 02Traders should monitor breakout signals as consolidation ensues.
- 03Watch for potential resistance at 1.1600 and support at current levels.
- 04Sentiment remains bearish on the euro as economic concerns persist.
Market implications
Traders should focus on the 1.1600 resistance level, which will be crucial in determining the future direction of EUR/USD. Additionally, upcoming economic data releases from the Eurozone could add volatility to this pair, making it essential to watch closely.
Risks to this view
A reversal in this bearish sentiment could occur if significant positive economic data from the Eurozone is released, notably a surprising uptick in GDP or inflation numbers that may boost the euro's strength. Should EUR/USD break above 1.1600 convincingly, it could signal a shift towards bullish sentiment.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.30
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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