Euro picks up above 1.1400 amid lower Oil prices and a softer US Dollar
The Euro's rise above 1.1400 reflects a confluence of decreasing oil prices and a weakening US Dollar. This movement is particularly notable as it may signal a shift in market sentiment towards European currencies. With recent forecasts indicating upward potential, the current level could be seen as a precursor to further strength against the dollar, especially if oil prices remain subdued and the Federal Reserve's posture softens.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across numerous firms), with UBS at the upper bound (1.2000) and Citi at the lower bound (1.1300). Recent shifts in forecasts suggest an inclination towards the bullish side, with firms like Deutsche Bank and MUFG reflecting optimism in their targets for March 2026, at 1.1800 and 1.2600, respectively.
How firms align
Among the firms, Deutsche Bank and MUFG are positioned in alignment with the current headline, forecasting optimistic targets of 1.1800 and 1.2600 for March 2026. In contrast, Citi’s more conservative stance at 1.1300 indicates a more cautious approach, highlighting the existing divergence among market participants. These insights can be explored further at /reports/deutschebank and /reports/mufg.
What the data shows
The latest forecast revisions underline a growing optimism, including JPMorgan’s forecast at 1.1800 for March 2026, which resonates with the current market sentiment that has propelled the Euro higher. For further detail, see our research at /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD trades just above 1.1400, supported by lower oil prices and a softer USD.
- 02Focus on upcoming US economic indicators that could impact Fed policy.
- 03Key resistance at 1.1700; monitoring for a breach may signal further gains.
- 04Recent upward revisions from key players suggest bullish sentiment.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the Euro's position relative to 1.1500 as key support, with upcoming US inflation data potentially acting as a catalyst for movement. Our consensus target of 1.1700 suggests room for escalation in bullish sentiment, should oil prices remain low.
Risks to this view
Should US economic data surprise positively, suggesting a more aggressive monetary stance from the Fed, this could rapidly reverse the recent gains in the Euro. Additionally, a sudden spike in oil prices could undermine the current bullish outlook.
Sentiment by currency
USD-EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Seen holding 1.1300 against US Dollar before recovery – ING
Euro: Consolidation after sharp decline against US Dollar – UOB
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EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds above mid-1.1300s amid Hormuz risks, bearish setup
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