Euro: Downtrend stretched near 1.1325 against US Dollar – UOB
The Euro's downtrend against the US Dollar has taken a notable turn, recently testing the 1.1325 level as highlighted by UOB. This movement raises questions about the near-term trajectory of the EUR/USD pair, particularly as the market now grapples with conflicting forecasts. While UOB suggests sustenance of this downward trend, there remains a divergence within the wider analyst community regarding support levels and future resistance points, making this a critical juncture for traders.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is currently positioned at 1.1700 for March 2026, with a firm-by-firm spread ranging from a low of 1.1300 (Citi) to a high of 1.2000 (UBS). UOB's recent target of 1.1536 is indicative of a more conservative outlook, yet still above the current spot of 1.1500, suggesting they may foresee a slight rebound rather than a sustained downtrend.
How firms align
Several firms display a more bullish outlook compared to UOB, including Deutsche Bank targeting 1.1800 and UBS at 1.2000 for March 2026. In contrast, Citi's projection at 1.1300 aligns closely with the bearish sentiment noted by UOB, emphasizing the varied perspectives within our coverage. Further insights can be explored in our related report on Deutsche Bank's targets at /reports/deutschebank.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions have seen firms like JPMorgan and Goldman both setting their targets at 1.1800 for March 2026, indicating a potential upward adjustment from the current spot. Our internal report /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path outlines the dichotomy in expectations as the Euro faces pressure against a backdrop of evolving economic indicators.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD remains under pressure near 1.1325; current spot at 1.1500 suggests room for volatility.
- 02Analysts see conflicting signals as forecasts range widely among major banks.
- 03Upcoming ECB meeting could catalyze movement; watching 1.1700 as a resistance level.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the Euro's performance around 1.1325 as an indicator of potential rebounds or further declines. The next ECB meeting presents a key event where policy signals could influence our consensus target of 1.1700. Positioning around these events will be crucial for navigating the current volatility.
Risks to this view
Should inflation data or ECB communications indicate stronger-than-expected economic conditions in the Eurozone, it could force a reassessment of the current bearish stance and validate higher targets. Additionally, geopolitical tensions could also disrupt trend expectations.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Stabilising above 1.1300 against US Dollar with risk driver – ING
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Rebounds above 1.1350, but outlook stays bearish below key resistance
EUR/USD bounce to 1.1350 lacks conviction; structural bearish bias persists until sustained break above key technical resistance.
Euro: Bearish bias with scope toward 1.12 against US Dollar – Scotiabank
Scotiabank's 1.12 EUR/USD target implies ~2% downside from current levels, signaling institutional conviction on euro weakness relative to dollar strength.
Euro: Testing 1.1300 risk grows against US Dollar – ING
EUR/USD downside targeting 1.1300 suggests institutional flow increasingly positioned for dollar strength amid widening rate differentials.
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