EUR/USD ahead of a key week: Holding near lows
The EUR/USD pair remains subdued near key technical lows as market participants brace for significant economic data and potential shifts in monetary policy. With the consensus sentiment leaning bearish on the euro, market positioning indicates an expectation for further dollar strength if upcoming eurozone statistics fail to meet forecasts. The volatility around this week's events could serve as a catalyst for breaking the current trading range.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD currently stands at 1.1700 (median across multiple firms), with the highest target projection from Commerzbank at 1.2000 and the lowest from Investec at 1.1455. The trading landscape indicates that market expectations are tilted towards the lower end given the current spot price of 1.1419.
How firms align
Leading firms are showing a range of targets, with Goldman Sachs projecting a relatively strong position at 1.1800 by March 2026, while Bank of America maintains a more cautious stance with a lower target of 1.1700. This spread indicates a divide in expectations, reflecting uncertainty about the eurozone's economic resilience against emerging dollar strength.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions have shown Bank of America adjusting its March target to 1.1700, aligning with the bearish sentiment seen across the market. Additionally, insights from our published research (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-07-26) highlight that current positioning does leave room for a potential rebound if data surprises positively, despite being close to lows.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD near technical lows at 1.1419; bullish USD sentiment prevails.
- 02Watch for economic data that could sway positioning in either direction.
- 03If eurozone data disappoints, anticipate movement towards lower targets.
- 04Bank of America shows some bearish caution with a near-term target of 1.1700.
Market implications
Traders should focus on key upcoming economic data releases, as a significant miss could push EUR/USD lower towards recent lows. Our consensus target remains at 1.1700, indicating a potential area of support.
Risks to this view
Should the eurozone's latest economic figures exceed expectations or the Federal Reserve adopt a more dovish stance, we may witness a rapid reversal towards 1.1800 or higher in the EUR/USD pair.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.60
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Resumes decline after testing Bearish Flag breakdown
Bearish flag breakdown in EUR/USD suggests technical capitulation; watch for fresh lows if support at 1.08 level fails to hold.
Euro: Growth and policy doubts point lower against US Dollar – HSBC
Eurozone growth concerns coupled with ECB policy uncertainty create structural headwinds for EUR/USD; USD bulls targeting weakness in cyclical-sensitive crosses.
Euro: Energy risks cap recovery against US Dollar – ING
Persistent eurozone energy vulnerabilities constrain EUR/USD upside even as technical recovery attempts emerge, favoring dollar strength on relative macro resilience.