CFTC Report: Euro and Aussie shorts build as Gold exposure remains elevated
The latest CFTC report indicates increasing short positions in the Euro and Aussie dollars, reflecting rising skepticism towards these currencies as macroeconomic uncertainties persist. Coupled with elevated gold exposure, this trend suggests institutional players are hedging against potential volatility. The bearish sentiment for EUR/USD remains tangible, particularly as the market grapples with diverging monetary policies between the ECB and the Fed. The sustained accumulation of Euro shorts reinforces a broader bearish bias as market participants anticipate further downside in the pair.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently sits at 1.1600 (median across firms), with CIBC at the upper bound (1.1866) and Mizuho at the lower bound (1.1300). The recent data from CFTC underpins a growing institutional bearish stance on the Euro, aligning closely with the broader consensus of continued EUR/USD downside potential.
How firms align
Specific firms echo this sentiment; for instance, Rabobank targets 1.1759 for March 2026 while TMG has a much lower target of 1.1447 in the same tenor. Notably, both perspectives feed into the bearish positioning highlighted in the CFTC report. For a detailed breakdown, see our coverage on TMG and Rabobank targets in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-17.
What the data shows
Recent forecasts indicate a revision toward the downside, with Nordea adjusting their March target to 1.1884, showing the market’s shift in perception. Research via our insight on positioning suggests potential corrective movements could remain limited as shorts build momentum, replacing prior bullish convictions — see /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-16 for more context.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01CFTC positioning shows increasing Euro shorts, reflecting bearish institutional sentiment.
- 02Strong correlation with gold investment could signal traders seeking safety amid uncertainty.
- 03Key supportive levels for Euro might emerge below 1.12, challenging bullish forecasts.
Market implications
Traders should monitor EUR/USD approaches to critical support levels below 1.1200, as further bearish positioning could heighten volatility. Additionally, upcoming ECB commentary should provide clarity on the monetary policy divergence influencing this outlook.
Risks to this view
A reversal in bullish sentiment for the Euro could occur if the ECB signals a more hawkish stance than expected or if US economic data significantly underperformed, causing traders to reassess their short positions.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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