Euro: Consolidation potential against US Dollar on CPI – ING
The Euro is poised for potential consolidation against the US Dollar as the market prepares for upcoming CPI data, according to ING's analysis. At 1.1253, the EUR/USD spot is significantly below the consensus targets, which range from a low of 1.1200 to a high of 1.2000 for March 2026. This disconnect highlights investor uncertainty, especially as inflation numbers may trigger shifts in monetary policy expectations. Given the current neutral sentiment towards both currencies, traders are advised to monitor how CPI results might influence Euro strength in the near term.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is 1.1700 (median across 11 firms) for March 2026, with predictions spanning a range of 1.1200 from AbnAmro at the lower end to CIBC's 1.1866 at the upper end. ING's outlook aligns closely with the consensus, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish stance as it expects a potential shift in momentum based on upcoming data.
How firms align
Rabobank (1.1759, Mar26) and Nomura (1.1700, Mar26) indicate optimistic expectations for the Euro's performance against the Dollar, mirroring the sentiment found in ING's analysis. Conversely, TMGm (1.1447, Mar26) exhibits a more cautious approach, suggesting potential resistance against substantial Euro appreciation. Firms like Mizuho and Lloyds also present more conservative targets compared to the consensus.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions have seen UOB adjust its target to 1.1536 for March 2026, signaling a moderate bullish sentiment. Additionally, the published insights suggest a consistent underperformance of the Euro against its projected median, detailed in our analysis found in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-15.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Current EUR/USD sits at 1.1253, a 3.6% divergence from the Dec-26 consensus of 1.16.
- 02Watch for CPI data to guide trade decisions; a surprise could shift sentiment.
- 03The upper consensus target of 1.1866 reflects bullish forecasts from firms like CIBC.
- 04Projected Euro targets display a broad range from 1.1200 to 1.2000, highlighting diverse views.
Market implications
Traders should pay close attention to the CPI release next week as it could significantly influence EUR/USD movements. If inflation data comes in strong, it might bolster the Euro, nudging it toward the consensus target of 1.1700. A sustained move above this level might ignite bullish sentiment.
Risks to this view
A weaker-than-expected CPI result could catalyze a reversal, leading to a drop in Euro valuations. Any dovish surprises from the ECB regarding future rate hikes could also undermine the Euro's strength against the Dollar, challenging the recent consolidation narrative.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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