Euro: Higher levels seen as slow grind against US Dollar – Commerzbank
The Euro's trajectory against the US Dollar is expected to be a gradual ascent, as Commerzbank's analysis underscores ongoing structural USD strength. This positioning suggests that any movement in EUR/USD will encounter significant resistance, making a quick reversal unlikely. The current spot at 1.1700 aligns with this sentiment, as market participants remain cautious about USD's dominance, particularly in the face of evolving macroeconomic conditions and interest rate differentials. The slow grind emphasizes the need for traders to remain attentive to geopolitical and economic catalysts affecting the Eurozone and the US.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is currently at 1.1700, with a tight range among firms that spans from 1.1100 to 1.2600. Notably, Deutsche Bank sits at the upper end of that range at 1.2500, while Citi stands at the lower bound with a target of 1.1100. Commerzbank's outlook resonates with our consensus, particularly as resistance levels loom over the currency pair.
How firms align
Firms like JPMorgan (1.1800) and Goldman (1.1800) share a similar view with Commerzbank, indicating a cautious but hopeful outlook on Euro appreciation. Conversely, Citi's bearish stance at 1.1100 contrasts sharply with the headline's bullish grind perspective. For comprehensive views, refer to our reports on /reports/jpmorgan and /reports/goldman.
What the data shows
Recent adjustments from ScotiaBank raised their March 2026 target to 1.1734, reflecting a slight bullish sentiment. This aligns with our published research on the EUR/USD, which highlights a significant gap in consensus and current market levels, underscoring potential volatility /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Commerzbank projects a gradual rise for EUR/USD amidst strong USD fundamentals.
- 02Resistance remains a key factor; traders should watch 1.1800 cautiously.
- 03Geopolitical risks and data releases could catalyze fluctuations around current levels.
Market implications
Investors should closely monitor the 1.1800 resistance as a pivotal level for potential movement. Upcoming economic indicators, particularly from the Eurozone, may influence sentiment and volatility. Our consensus target at 1.1700 reinforces the caution around this range.
Risks to this view
A shift in market dynamics, particularly stronger-than-expected US data or significant ECB shifts, could quickly reverse the current bullish sentiment on the Euro. A decisive break below 1.1700 might also trigger broader selling pressure.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.60
Firms mentioned
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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Euro: Shifts from selloff to consolidation against US Dollar – UOB
Euro: Sintra tone and CPI support gains against US Dollar – ING
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