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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
Global economic challenges are intensifying as high energy prices and increased borrowing costs create a stark divide between nations engaged in the AI boom and those reliant on traditional sectors. This bifurcation emphasizes the importance of energy exposure, with a notable impact on growth trajectories. Countries without significant tech exposure are likely to lag, hindering not only their currencies but also broader global economic stability.
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.075 (median across 8 firms), with Goldman at the upper bound (1.12) and BofA at the lower (1.04). [PUBLISHER']s view aligns more closely with the upper third — JPMorgan and ING share that framing.
JPMorgan maintains an aligned stance with a target of 1.10 for March, echoing the sentiment that divergence in economic fundamentals will affect currency performance. Conversely, BofA argues against this view, suggesting a more bearish outlook with a target of 1.04.
Recent forecasts reflect the growing concern regarding economic splits driven by energy prices and borrowing costs. Further insights on this topic can be found in /research/divergent-growth-dynamics.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
Market implications
Watch for potential shifts around key economic data releases that may highlight these divergences. Our consensus target of 1.075 for EUR/USD will be tested as the market reacts to ongoing economic indicators.
Risks to this view
Should energy prices stabilize or decrease significantly, coupled with a change in borrowing costs, this could lead to a rapid reassessment of the current economic splits and affect currency positioning.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY GBPComposite USD score: +0.65