EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bears await 1.1115-1.1110 support break as focus remains on ECB
The EUR/USD pair is currently facing renewed bearish pressure, trading around 1.1253 after a brief recovery from the significant support level of 1.1110. With USD buying resurgent, the market is attentive to a potential breakdown below this pivotal level, which analysts believe could trigger further declines. The spotlight remains firmly on the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) commentary, where expectations are rife for a cautious stance amid steady inflation pressures.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1500 (median across firms), with CIBC at the upper end of the forecast range (1.2200) and HSBC at the lower end (1.1000). This reflects a broad divergence in expectations, indicating market uncertainty ahead of ECB discussions.
How firms align
Several firms are positioning similarly to the current bearish view, including Investec with a target of 1.1455 for March 2026 and BNP Paribas at 1.1600 for the same tenor. Notably, recent revisions from firms like Standard Chartered (1.1400) and Danske Bank (1.1866) reflect cautious views, suggesting a possible alignment with the bearish sentiment referenced by FXStreet.
What the data shows
Recent research indicates a critical gap between spot and consensus figures, with current trading around 1.1253 being significantly below the medians of 1.1500. For more insights, see our report at /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-29.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD tests key support at 1.1110, risk of further downside if broken.
- 02Focus on ECB commentary could amplify volatility; monitor guidance closely.
- 03Recent bids from USD outweigh any Euro strength, favoring dollar bulls in short term.
Market implications
Traders should watch for the 1.1110 support level, as a break could accelerate selling pressure. The upcoming ECB meeting on October 29 is poised to significantly influence price action, corroborating our consensus target of 1.1500.
Risks to this view
A stronger-than-expected ECB stance or surprising economic data from the Eurozone could invalidate the current bearish outlook, pushing EUR/USD back towards resistance levels near 1.15.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
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