EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: US President Donald Trump judgment day has come
The EUR/USD pair closed the week around 1.1160, reflecting consistent bearish pressure as the prospect of U.S. policy uncertainties looms heavily over the market. This week's upcoming judgments linked to President Trump's decisions on tariffs are highlighting potential downside risks for the euro against the dollar. The currency pair’s struggles undercut the market's previous expectations for a bullish rebound, emphasizing the need for traders to reassess their positions amid shifting geopolitical dynamics.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently sits at 1.1500, with a range from 1.1000 to 1.2200 among various firms. Notably, CIBC projects a higher March 2026 target of 1.1866, while HSBC's lower forecast ends at 1.1000, indicating a broad disparity in outlooks among market participants.
How firms align
Among the firms, MUFG's March 2026 target of 1.1800 aligns well with the prevailing sentiment, while ING stands at a more cautious 1.1700. This shows that while some analysts are somewhat optimistic, others remain bearish with targets indicating vulnerability for the euro, as highlighted in our internal report at /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
What the data shows
Recent forecasts have shown significant revisions, with firms like Standard Chartered reducing their March 2026 target to 1.1400 while others, such as UBS, see it reaching 1.2000. This indicates a potential reassessment of the euro's strength in light of economic indicators and geopolitical events.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD currently trades at 1.1160, showing notable weekly losses.
- 02Trader focus shifts to Trump’s upcoming policy announcements as key volatility driver.
- 03Bearish sentiment prevails, with a consensus target of 1.1500.
- 04Upcoming ECB meetings could pivotally reshape euro expectations.
Market implications
Traders should closely watch the 1.1100 level for potential support; a break below could reinforce bearish sentiment. The consensus target of 1.1500 remains a critical threshold for assessing medium-term positioning. Additionally, the November 5th outcomes will be pivotal for directional conviction in this pair.
Risks to this view
A sudden change in U.S. policy or unexpected positive economic data from the Eurozone could invalidate the current bearish outlook. Specifically, a decisive move towards trade stability might prompt a swift correction in EUR/USD, pushing it upwards beyond 1.1500.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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