EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bears retain control within descending channel
The EUR/USD pair remains under bearish pressure, constrained within its ongoing descending channel. With the current spot price at 1.1434, downward momentum appears persistent as market participants remain wary amidst mixed economic indicators from both the Eurozone and the U.S. This bearish sentiment aligns well with recent analysis suggesting limited upside for the Euro against a resilient USD, reflecting investor caution. As such, the prevailing outlook underscores the need for traders to closely monitor key support levels.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently sits at 1.1700 (median across various firms), with firm targets ranging from a low of 1.1000 (Citi) to a high of 1.2200 (Commerzbank). This spread indicates diverging expectations, aligning with the broader bearish view reflected in the headline.
How firms align
Commerzbank's bullish target of 1.1900 for Mar26 aligns with the argument against the prevailing bearish stance. Conversely, Citi's projection of 1.1300 positions it closer to the bearish sentiments described in the headline. For further insights, refer to our internal /reports/commerzbank and /reports/citi pages.
What the data shows
Notably, several firms have downgraded their March 2026 projections in the last two weeks, reflecting ongoing market skepticism. For more context, see our recent publication /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path, which discusses the significant gap between current trading levels and the expected consensus.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD tests resistance within a descending channel at 1.1434.
- 02Expect volatility as traders react to mixed economic signals from both regions.
- 03Key support watched below 1.1300 could further strengthen bearish sentiment.
- 04Market participants remain cautious ahead of upcoming ECB and Fed meetings.
Market implications
Next, watch how the pair responds around the key support level of 1.1300, especially with significant economic indicators due from the U.S. and Eurozone. Continued bearish sentiment could bring prices closer to consensus targets.
Risks to this view
A shift in communication from the ECB or unexpected strong U.S. economic data could invalidate bearish views. Any bullish catalysts could lead to a price breakout above 1.1700, undermining current bearish expectations.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Energy repricing shapes outlook against US Dollar – ABN AMRO
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Euro hesitates above 1.1400 as geopolitical risks mount
Geopolitical risk premium typically favors USD safe-haven flows; EUR hesitation at 1.1400 suggests downside vulnerability if tensions escalate.