EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bears target a break below 1.1350 support
The EUR/USD pair currently hovers around 1.1419, facing bearish pressure as traders eye a potential breakdown below the critical support at 1.1350. The sentiment is skewed towards USD strength, which, when combined with expectations for an expanding rate differential, could further exert downward pressure on the euro. A sustained break below 1.1350 would not only reinforce the bearish outlook but could signal a broader shift in market dynamics as traders reassess the ECB's dovish stance amidst current economic challenges.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our current consensus target for EUR/USD stands at 1.16 (median across 11 firms), with Commerzbank at the upper end of the range (1.22) and Goldman at the lower (1.12). This positions us in a slightly bullish framework compared to the imminent bearish sentiment highlighted by fxstreet.com.
How firms align
Specific firms are increasingly diverging from the bearish outlook suggested by the recent analysis. For instance, BofA maintains a more optimistic view aligned with a target of 1.1700 for March 2026, while Goldman specifically targets a lower 1.1800. Both firms project a more resilient euro compared to the short-term fears expressed in the headline.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions have shown some upward adjustments, with firms like BofA moving their March target up to 1.1700, suggesting some remaining bullish sentiment amid the bearish pressures. Our latest insights, particularly noted in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-07-23, highlight ongoing divergence between spot prices and consensus estimates, currently holding at 1.1374, adding to market complexity.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Key takeaways
- 01Break below 1.1350 could trigger sustained EUR/USD weakness.
- 02Market sentiment is leaning USD bullish; traders monitor ECB dovish hints.
- 03Watch for rate differential shifts as a potential catalyst for euro weakness.
- 04Firms like BofA and Goldman diverge from immediate bearish outlook.
Market implications
Next, market participants should closely monitor the 1.1350 support level as a break could trigger further selling pressure. Additionally, upcoming economic data releases and ECB communications will be crucial in shaping the euro's outlook against the dollar. Our consensus target of 1.16 should also be referenced amidst these dynamics.
Risks to this view
A reversal in this bearish view could occur if ECB signals a stronger-than-expected stance on rates or if U.S. economic data softens significantly, potentially diminishing the dollar's appeal. Specific catalysts might include a surprise rate hike from the ECB or unexpectedly strong eurozone economic indicators.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.40
Sources & References
How we cover this story
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